← The Light - PTM Store Championship
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at The Light - PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-3-0
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.0%
avg ELO -4.5 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1529
· median 1529
· range 1321–1736
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1156
Q1 1243
Q3 1458
1736
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.8% | -24.4 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Wind Zander | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
